Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (76%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Çaykur Rizespor win on 2026-10-26?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 25¢ · $122 held · ends Oct 26

Yes25¢No75¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$121.87

Combined PnL

$4.01

Research grade

AvoidYes at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 76%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes25%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$90.69

Total Shares349

Combined PnL+$3

No2 traders

Total Value$31.18

Total Shares42

Combined PnL+$1.01

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 25.2¢	$75.49	$78	+$2.51	58% 36504-26536 (63040)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Noavg 72¢	$27.49	$28.44	+$0.95	64% 954-547 (1501)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$11.17	$11.62	+$0.45	53% 14806-12989 (27795)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 73¢	$2.7	$2.74	+$0.06	57% 23656-18201 (41857)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$1.03	$1.07	+$0.04	55% 2064-1680 (3744)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$75.49

Value

$78

PnL

+$2.51

Record

58%

36504-26536 (63040)

lonmi2511<$100

Invested

$27.49

Value

$28.44

PnL

+$0.95

Record

64%

954-547 (1501)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.17

Value

$11.62

PnL

+$0.45

Record

53%

14806-12989 (27795)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$2.7

Value

$2.74

PnL

+$0.06

Record

57%

23656-18201 (41857)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.03

Value

$1.07

PnL

+$0.04

Record

55%

2064-1680 (3744)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 76%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance26.4%

24.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$278.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

378.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.