Trabzonspor leading at halftime?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 26

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$78.97

Smart Money Entry

63.2¢ → 100¢

+58% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$919.82

Total Shares1,586

Combined PnL-$82.1

Yes2 traders

Total Value$232.49

Total Shares566

Combined PnL+$3.13

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Noavg 58.9¢	$484.95	$473.14	-$6.76	58% 37579-27344 (64923)
0X 0xcba9371dcbbd7a48b477f04274376e1feea9f812CTR	Yesavg 40.6¢	$220	$222.08	-$6.04	28% 77-202 (279)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Noavg 58.7¢	$193.18	$190.82	-$2.36	56% 24547-18914 (43461)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 59.5¢	$139.64	$136.15	-$3.5	51% 21869-21276 (43145)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 96¢	$175.03	$105.79	-$69.24	60% 39862-26488 (66350)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 59¢	$14.16	$13.92	-$0.24	50% 10912-11060 (21972)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$1.24	$10.41	+$9.17	50% 9393-9316 (18709)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$484.95

Value

$473.14

PnL

-$6.76

Record

58%

37579-27344 (64923)

0xcba9371dcbbd7a48b477f04274376e1feea9f812CTR

Yes

Invested

$220

Value

$222.08

PnL

-$6.04

Record

28%

77-202 (279)

LeLynxMalynx

Invested

$193.18

Value

$190.82

PnL

-$2.36

Record

56%

24547-18914 (43461)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$139.64

Value

$136.15

PnL

-$3.5

Record

51%

21869-21276 (43145)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$175.03

Value

$105.79

PnL

-$69.24

Record

60%

39862-26488 (66350)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$14.16

Value

$13.92

PnL

-$0.24

Record

50%

10912-11060 (21972)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.24

Value

$10.41

PnL

+$9.17

Record

50%

9393-9316 (18709)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.