Will Çaykur Rizespor vs. Trabzonspor end in a draw?

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (85%) · No at 82¢ · $13K held · ended Oct 26

Yes19¢No81¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 85%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.1K

Combined PnL

$240.91

Smart Money Entry

76.6¢ → 81.5¢

+6% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$12.3K

Total Shares15,604

Combined PnL+$238.94

Yes2 traders

Total Value$8.82

Total Shares26

Combined PnL+$1.97

No — 85%Yes — 15%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 76¢	$5.1K	$5.5K	+$433.11	50% 10912-11060 (21972)
CA Cannae	Noavg 76¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$24.07	53% 15234-13442 (28676)
RN1	Noavg 83¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$7.22	54% 51866-43791 (95657)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 76¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$102.26	51% 21869-21276 (43145)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 76¢	$912	$924	+$12	58% 37579-27344 (64923)
oieshfn345	Noavg 75.9¢	$991.43	$851.56	-$139.87	57% 1560-1154 (2714)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Noavg 76¢	$827.14	$849.63	+$22.49	60% 39862-26488 (66350)
└ No leg	Noavg 76¢	$415.72	$445.8	+$30.08
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 18.8¢	$411.42	$403.83	-$7.59
0xheavy888	Noavg 75.5¢	$603.26	$615.25	+$11.99	56% 6695-5367 (12062)
BE Betziko	Noavg 75.5¢	$113.97	$122.21	+$8.24	54% 5749-4838 (10587)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 73¢	$61.45	$61.2	-$0.25	61% 8644-5579 (14223)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 76¢	$18.05	$19.83	+$1.54	55% 2163-1776 (3939)
PO poposub<$100	Noavg 83.7¢	$14.28	$11.86	-$2.42	47% 1930-2150 (4080)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Yesavg 26.5¢	$5.92	$7.92	+$2	62% 13400-8249 (21649)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 23.7¢	$0.93	$0.9	-$0.03	50% 9393-9316 (18709)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$5,069.43

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$433.11

Record

50%

10912-11060 (21972)

Cannae

Invested

$1,829.08

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$24.07

Record

53%

15234-13442 (28676)

RN1

Invested

$1,198.04

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$7.22

Record

54%

51866-43791 (95657)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,207.89

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$102.26

Record

51%

21869-21276 (43145)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$912

Value

$924

PnL

+$12

Record

58%

37579-27344 (64923)

oieshfn345

Invested

$991.43

Value

$851.56

PnL

-$139.87

Record

57%

1560-1154 (2714)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Invested

$827.14

Value

$849.63

PnL

+$22.49

Record

60%

39862-26488 (66350)

Both legs:

No$415.7276¢+$30.08

Yes$411.4218.8¢-$7.59

0xheavy888

Invested

$603.26

Value

$615.25

PnL

+$11.99

Record

56%

6695-5367 (12062)

Betziko

Invested

$113.97

Value

$122.21

PnL

+$8.24

Record

54%

5749-4838 (10587)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$61.45

Value

$61.2

PnL

-$0.25

Record

61%

8644-5579 (14223)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$18.05

Value

$19.83

PnL

+$1.54

Record

55%

2163-1776 (3939)

poposub<$100

Invested

$14.28

Value

$11.86

PnL

-$2.42

Record

47%

1930-2150 (4080)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.92

Value

$7.92

PnL

+$2

Record

62%

13400-8249 (21649)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.93

Value

$0.9

PnL

-$0.03

Record

50%

9393-9316 (18709)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.