Çaykur Rizespor vs. Trabzonspor: Both Teams to Score
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 71%
$2.0K
-$83.82
72.1¢ → 100¢
+39% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Yesavg 77¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$7.08 | 54% 51866-43791 (95657) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 27.4¢ | $573.4 | $470.9 | -$102.5 | 60% 39862-26488 (66350) |
 0xheavy888 | Yesavg 63¢ | $261.81 | $265.97 | +$4.16 | 56% 6695-5367 (12062) |
FO foooool | Yesavg 61.6¢ | $174.27 | $181.09 | +$6.82 | 50% 9550-9470 (19020) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 36¢ | $11.98 | $11.98 | +$0 | 56% 24547-18914 (43461) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Yesavg 59¢ | $6.49 | $7.04 | +$0.55 | 50% 10912-11060 (21972) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Yesavg 63¢ | $5.11 | $5.19 | +$0.08 | 58% 37579-27344 (64923) |
RN1Invested
$1,089.55
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$7.08
Record
54%
51866-43791 (95657)
Invested
$573.4
Value
$470.9
PnL
-$102.5
Record
60%
39862-26488 (66350)
0xheavy888Invested
$261.81
Value
$265.97
PnL
+$4.16
Record
56%
6695-5367 (12062)
Invested
$174.27
Value
$181.09
PnL
+$6.82
Record
50%
9550-9470 (19020)
Invested
$11.98
Value
$11.98
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
24547-18914 (43461)
Invested
$6.49
Value
$7.04
PnL
+$0.55
Record
50%
10912-11060 (21972)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$5.11
Value
$5.19
PnL
+$0.08
Record
58%
37579-27344 (64923)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.