Konyaspor vs. Gençlerbirliği SK: O/U 2.5
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 71¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 63%
$1.5K
$124.17
52.7¢ → 70.5¢
+34% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 71%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 53.5¢ | $480.56 | $597 | +$116.45 | 52% 16269-14809 (31078) |
 us391 | Underavg 52¢ | $356.86 | $363.72 | +$6.86 | 52% 1353-1269 (2622) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 52.1¢ | $602.52 | $300.84 | +$4.36 | 58% 31642-22900 (54542) |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 44.1¢ | $106.77 | $107.62 | +$0.85 | 55% 43492-35800 (79292) |
 cassandra.torchlightCTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $75 | $71.94 | -$3.06 | 51% 237-227 (464) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $69.96 | $68.64 | -$1.32 | 54% 13809-11592 (25401) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Overavg 42¢ | $7.14 | $7.14 | +$0 | 68% 31119-14954 (46073) |
FO foooool<$100 | Underavg 55¢ | $3.59 | $3.62 | +$0.03 | 51% 6539-6324 (12863) |
Invested
$480.56
Value
$597
PnL
+$116.45
Record
52%
16269-14809 (31078)
us391Invested
$356.86
Value
$363.72
PnL
+$6.86
Record
52%
1353-1269 (2622)
VeryLucky888Invested
$602.52
Value
$300.84
PnL
+$4.36
Record
58%
31642-22900 (54542)
RN1CTRInvested
$106.77
Value
$107.62
PnL
+$0.85
Record
55%
43492-35800 (79292)
cassandra.torchlightCTR<$100Invested
$75
Value
$71.94
PnL
-$3.06
Record
51%
237-227 (464)
Invested
$69.96
Value
$68.64
PnL
-$1.32
Record
54%
13809-11592 (25401)
Invested
$7.14
Value
$7.14
PnL
+$0
Record
68%
31119-14954 (46073)
Invested
$3.59
Value
$3.62
PnL
+$0.03
Record
51%
6539-6324 (12863)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.