Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (57%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Konyaspor vs. Gençlerbirliği SK: O/U 1.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 43¢ · $232 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 67%
$231.63
$0.7
27.5¢ → 42.5¢
+54% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 43%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 57%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 27¢ | $162 | $162 | +$0 | 58% 31642-22900 (54542) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 27¢ | $31.86 | $31.86 | +$0 | 54% 13809-11592 (25401) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Underavg 35¢ | $15.75 | $16.43 | +$0.68 | 51% 6539-6324 (12863) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Overavg 72¢ | $9.72 | $9.86 | +$0.07 | 56% 6353-5083 (11436) |
TH thatsabing0<$100 | Overavg 73¢ | $9.58 | $9.58 | -$0.07 | 92% 2309-198 (2507) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 36¢ | $1.88 | $1.91 | +$0.03 | 55% 43492-35800 (79292) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$162
Value
$162
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
31642-22900 (54542)
Invested
$31.86
Value
$31.86
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
13809-11592 (25401)
Invested
$15.75
Value
$16.43
PnL
+$0.68
Record
51%
6539-6324 (12863)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$9.72
Value
$9.86
PnL
+$0.07
Record
56%
6353-5083 (11436)
Invested
$9.58
Value
$9.58
PnL
-$0.07
Record
92%
2309-198 (2507)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$1.88
Value
$1.91
PnL
+$0.03
Record
55%
43492-35800 (79292)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.