Will Konyaspor win on 2026-10-25?

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (27%) · Yes at 52¢ · $56K held · ended Oct 25

Yes52¢No48¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 27%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$56.0K

Combined PnL

$411.27

Smart Money Entry

53¢ → 51.5¢

-3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 52%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 11 top traders (27%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes52%

No49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$40.0K

Total Shares74,066

Combined PnL+$752.47

No8 traders

Total Value$15.2K

Total Shares32,834

Combined PnL-$341.2

Yes — 27%No — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34	Yesavg 53¢	$39.0K	$39.7K	+$739.63	48% 114-124 (238)
ZH zhuz632CTR	Noavg 48¢	$4.8K	$4.6K	-$200.62	50% 227-223 (450)
us391CTR	Noavg 47¢	$3.5K	$3.4K	-$75.65	52% 1353-1269 (2622)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Noavg 47¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	-$60	47% 1968-2204 (4172)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 47.2¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$16.97	52% 16269-14809 (31078)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 46.7¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$16.8	58% 31642-22900 (54542)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Noavg 46.1¢	$737.31	$754.36	+$17.05	68% 31119-14954 (46073)
└ No leg	Noavg 46.1¢	$469.9	$484.38	+$14.48
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 52¢	$267.41	$269.98	+$2.57
CA CannaeCTR	Noavg 46.1¢	$380.29	$379.8	-$0.49	53% 13577-12018 (25595)
oieshfn345	Yesavg 52.1¢	$276.99	$289.94	+$13.01	57% 1457-1081 (2538)
0xheavy888CTR	Noavg 47¢	$188	$184	-$4	56% 6353-5083 (11436)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Noavg 46.2¢	$151.95	$151.34	-$0.61	54% 13809-11592 (25401)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Yesavg 54.1¢	$15.52	$15.35	-$0.17	53% 1871-1637 (3508)

1l2ihj34li12u34

Yes

Invested

$38,954.38

Value

$39.7K

PnL

+$739.63

Record

48%

114-124 (238)

zhuz632CTR

Invested

$4,814.88

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$200.62

Record

50%

227-223 (450)

us391CTR

Invested

$3,483.22

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$75.65

Record

52%

1353-1269 (2622)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Invested

$2,820

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$60

Record

47%

1968-2204 (4172)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$2,545.99

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$16.97

Record

52%

16269-14809 (31078)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$1,176.46

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$16.8

Record

58%

31642-22900 (54542)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Invested

$737.31

Value

$754.36

PnL

+$17.05

Record

68%

31119-14954 (46073)

Both legs:

No$469.946.1¢+$14.48

Yes$267.4152¢+$2.57

CannaeCTR

Invested

$380.29

Value

$379.8

PnL

-$0.49

Record

53%

13577-12018 (25595)

oieshfn345

Yes

Invested

$276.99

Value

$289.94

PnL

+$13.01

Record

57%

1457-1081 (2538)

0xheavy888CTR

Invested

$188

Value

$184

PnL

-$4

Record

56%

6353-5083 (11436)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Invested

$151.95

Value

$151.34

PnL

-$0.61

Record

54%

13809-11592 (25401)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.52

Value

$15.35

PnL

-$0.17

Record

53%

1871-1637 (3508)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 52%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 11 top traders (27%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.