Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Gençlerbirliği SK win on 2026-10-25?
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $562 held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 50%
1 arb excluded
$561.63
$68.36
16.7¢ → 0.4¢
-98% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 16.3¢ | $277.8 | $334.55 | +$56.75 | 52% 16273-14816 (31089) |
 oieshfn345ARB<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $141.92 | $87.53 | -$54.39 | 57% 1457-1081 (2538) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 90.6¢ | $61.6 | $64.94 | +$3.34 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 16¢ | $80.32 | $22.59 | -$57.73 | |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 83.2¢ | $56.82 | $65.82 | +$9 | 58% 1463-1078 (2541) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $44.85 | $47.21 | +$2.36 | 51% 6539-6324 (12863) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $11.1 | $10.96 | -$0.14 | 53% 1871-1637 (3508) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $9.4 | $9.52 | +$0.12 | 53% 13578-12019 (25597) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $3.76 | $3.81 | +$0 | 54% 13813-11594 (25407) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $1.11 | $1.23 | +$0.12 | 58% 31660-22917 (54577) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $0.85 | $1 | +$0.15 | 55% 4844-4028 (8872) |
Invested
$277.8
Value
$334.55
PnL
+$56.75
Record
52%
16273-14816 (31089)
oieshfn345ARB<$100Invested
$141.92
Value
$87.53
PnL
-$54.39
Record
57%
1457-1081 (2538)
Both legs:
HRTrading<$100Invested
$56.82
Value
$65.82
PnL
+$9
Record
58%
1463-1078 (2541)
Invested
$44.85
Value
$47.21
PnL
+$2.36
Record
51%
6539-6324 (12863)
Invested
$11.1
Value
$10.96
PnL
-$0.14
Record
53%
1871-1637 (3508)
Invested
$9.4
Value
$9.52
PnL
+$0.12
Record
53%
13578-12019 (25597)
Invested
$3.76
Value
$3.81
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
13813-11594 (25407)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$1.11
Value
$1.23
PnL
+$0.12
Record
58%
31660-22917 (54577)
Invested
$0.85
Value
$1
PnL
+$0.15
Record
55%
4844-4028 (8872)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.