Will Konyaspor vs. Gençlerbirliği SK end in a draw?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 97¢ · $156 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$156.03
-$26.73
85.9¢ → 97.4¢
+13% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $95 | $73.5 | -$21.5 | 68% 31121-14960 (46081) |
SP spyGoodLuck77<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $33.2 | $29.4 | -$3.8 | 63% 1393-822 (2215) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $17.63 | $18.25 | +$0.62 | 58% 31660-22917 (54577) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $13.36 | $13.45 | +$0.09 | 53% 1871-1637 (3508) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31.7¢ | $15.57 | $13.02 | -$2.55 | 52% 16273-14816 (31089) |
 oieshfn345<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $4.46 | $4.75 | +$0.29 | 57% 1457-1081 (2538) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $3.55 | $3.68 | +$0.13 | 55% 4844-4028 (8872) |
Invested
$95
Value
$73.5
PnL
-$21.5
Record
68%
31121-14960 (46081)
Invested
$33.2
Value
$29.4
PnL
-$3.8
Record
63%
1393-822 (2215)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$17.63
Value
$18.25
PnL
+$0.62
Record
58%
31660-22917 (54577)
Invested
$13.36
Value
$13.45
PnL
+$0.09
Record
53%
1871-1637 (3508)
Invested
$15.57
Value
$13.02
PnL
-$2.55
Record
52%
16273-14816 (31089)
oieshfn345<$100Invested
$4.46
Value
$4.75
PnL
+$0.29
Record
57%
1457-1081 (2538)
Invested
$3.55
Value
$3.68
PnL
+$0.13
Record
55%
4844-4028 (8872)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.