Göztepe SK vs. Çorum FK: O/U 3.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 51¢ · $663 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 57%
$663.42
-$140.28
69.1¢ → 51¢
-26% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 51%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 69.8¢ | $476.76 | $369.02 | -$107.74 | 52% 16312-14865 (31177) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $79.81 | $78.11 | -$0.85 | 55% 43612-35879 (79491) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Underavg 66¢ | $75.47 | $61.75 | -$15.44 | 56% 6365-5100 (11465) |
FO foooool<$100 | Underavg 68¢ | $74.97 | $59.54 | -$15.43 | 51% 6583-6340 (12923) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 69.7¢ | $49.72 | $46.98 | -$2.74 | 54% 13824-11602 (25426) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 30.1¢ | $29.79 | $38.82 | +$1.93 | 57% 1506-1114 (2620) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 31¢ | $213.2 | $9.21 | -$0 | 58% 31731-22975 (54706) |
Invested
$476.76
Value
$369.02
PnL
-$107.74
Record
52%
16312-14865 (31177)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$79.81
Value
$78.11
PnL
-$0.85
Record
55%
43612-35879 (79491)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$75.47
Value
$61.75
PnL
-$15.44
Record
56%
6365-5100 (11465)
Invested
$74.97
Value
$59.54
PnL
-$15.43
Record
51%
6583-6340 (12923)
Invested
$49.72
Value
$46.98
PnL
-$2.74
Record
54%
13824-11602 (25426)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$29.79
Value
$38.82
PnL
+$1.93
Record
57%
1506-1114 (2620)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$213.2
Value
$9.21
PnL
-$0
Record
58%
31731-22975 (54706)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.