Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (56%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Göztepe SK vs. Çorum FK: O/U 2.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 44¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 80%
$2.2K
-$171.7
47.8¢ → 43.5¢
-9% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 44%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 us391CTR | Underavg 48¢ | $1.8K | $1.6K | -$131.7 | 52% 1353-1269 (2622) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 47.1¢ | $289.5 | $264.45 | -$25.05 | 58% 31634-22891 (54525) |
 cassandra.torchlight | Overavg 56¢ | $150 | $148.66 | -$1.34 | 51% 234-227 (461) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Underavg 47.4¢ | $109.09 | $98.9 | -$10.19 | 54% 13805-11589 (25394) |
SL slimjoeCTR<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $52.44 | $49.02 | -$3.42 | 52% 5352-4963 (10315) |
us391CTRInvested
$1,806.24
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$131.7
Record
52%
1353-1269 (2622)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$289.5
Value
$264.45
PnL
-$25.05
Record
58%
31634-22891 (54525)
cassandra.torchlightInvested
$150
Value
$148.66
PnL
-$1.34
Record
51%
234-227 (461)
Invested
$109.09
Value
$98.9
PnL
-$10.19
Record
54%
13805-11589 (25394)
Invested
$52.44
Value
$49.02
PnL
-$3.42
Record
52%
5352-4963 (10315)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.