Will Göztepe SK win on 2026-10-25?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 94¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25

Yes94¢No6¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$159.94

Smart Money Entry

57.8¢ → 93.5¢

+62% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 94%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes94%

No7%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$889

Total Shares1,368

Combined PnL+$98.44

No2 traders

Total Value$164.21

Total Shares439

Combined PnL+$61.5

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 42¢	$336.08	$452.42	+$160.29	58% 31731-22975 (54706)
FO foooool	Yesavg 80.7¢	$444.78	$358.16	-$86.62	51% 6583-6340 (12923)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 17.7¢	$74.58	$136.86	+$62.28	68% 31211-14997 (46208)
CA Cannae<$100	Yesavg 42¢	$48.57	$75.17	+$26.02	53% 13585-12026 (25611)
RN1CTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$28.13	$27.34	-$0.78	55% 43612-35879 (79491)
AJ AJSV<$100	Yesavg 90¢	$4.5	$3.25	-$1.25	36% 12940-22677 (35617)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$336.08

Value

$452.42

PnL

+$160.29

Record

58%

31731-22975 (54706)

foooool

Yes

Invested

$444.78

Value

$358.16

PnL

-$86.62

Record

51%

6583-6340 (12923)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$74.58

Value

$136.86

PnL

+$62.28

Record

68%

31211-14997 (46208)

Cannae<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.57

Value

$75.17

PnL

+$26.02

Record

53%

13585-12026 (25611)

RN1CTR<$100

Invested

$28.13

Value

$27.34

PnL

-$0.78

Record

55%

43612-35879 (79491)

AJSV<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.5

Value

$3.25

PnL

-$1.25

Record

36%

12940-22677 (35617)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 94%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.