Galatasaray SK vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 6.5

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 26

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 57%

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

-$24.7

Smart Money Entry

97¢ → 99.5¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over1%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares4,737

Combined PnL-$1.44

Over3 traders

Total Value$67.69

Total Shares3,348

Combined PnL-$23.26

Under — 57%Over — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (6 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 97¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$2.45	60% 40192-26830 (67022)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 97.3¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$6.27	51% 22118-21518 (43636)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1	Underavg 96.4¢	$216.24	$218.11	+$1.87	53% 1995-1773 (3768)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 94.1¢	$41.4	$42.77	+$0.51	56% 24841-19200 (44041)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 2.7¢	$61.62	$37.38	-$24.24	50% 11018-11200 (22218)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 2.6¢	$26.2	$27.84	+$1.64	54% 52380-44285 (96665)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 3.5¢	$3.13	$2.47	-$0.66	55% 2171-1792 (3963)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$3,163.52

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$2.45

Record

60%

40192-26830 (67022)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$1,214.24

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$6.27

Record

51%

22118-21518 (43636)

hedgevaultmainnet1

Under

Invested

$216.24

Value

$218.11

PnL

+$1.87

Record

53%

1995-1773 (3768)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$41.4

Value

$42.77

PnL

+$0.51

Record

56%

24841-19200 (44041)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$61.62

Value

$37.38

PnL

-$24.24

Record

50%

11018-11200 (22218)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$26.2

Value

$27.84

PnL

+$1.64

Record

54%

52380-44285 (96665)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.13

Value

$2.47

PnL

-$0.66

Record

55%

2171-1792 (3963)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (6 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.