Galatasaray SK vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 4.5

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 90¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 26

Over11¢Under89¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 63%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.4K

Combined PnL

$279.49

Smart Money Entry

75.4¢ → 89.5¢

+19% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 90%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over11%

Under90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares4,113

Combined PnL+$289.54

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares4,635

Combined PnL-$10.05

Under — 63%Over — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 75.5¢	$3.0K	$3.2K	+$276.18	60% 40192-26830 (67022)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 78.1¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$29.69	51% 22118-21518 (43636)
└ Under leg	Underavg 78.1¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$104.62
└ Over leg	Overavg 20¢	$591.87	$516.95	-$74.93
LU LuckyLooARB<$100	Overavg 20.4¢	$380.51	$510.31	+$129.8	50% 11018-11200 (22218)
└ Over leg	Overavg 20.4¢	$239.5	$370.33	+$130.82
└ Under leg	Underavg 69¢	$141.01	$139.99	-$1.02
RN1CTR	Overavg 20.6¢	$386.56	$411.18	+$24.62	54% 52380-44285 (96665)
poshposhCTR	Overavg 36.4¢	$249.35	$311.39	+$62.04	61% 8687-5628 (14315)
FO fooooolCTR	Overavg 17.1¢	$401.48	$304.76	-$96.72	50% 9642-9563 (19205)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 76¢	$184.22	$108.98	+$11.74	58% 37843-27569 (65412)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 64¢	$34.66	$35.91	+$1.25	50% 9398-9322 (18720)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Underavg 77¢	$7.85	$8.67	+$0.82	53% 1995-1773 (3768)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 67¢	$5.73	$5.29	-$0.44	55% 2171-1792 (3963)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$2,966.22

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$276.18

Record

60%

40192-26830 (67022)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,459.42

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$29.69

Record

51%

22118-21518 (43636)

Both legs:

Under$1,867.5578.1¢+$104.62

Over$591.8720¢-$74.93

LuckyLooARB<$100

Over

Invested

$380.51

Value

$510.31

PnL

+$129.8

Record

50%

11018-11200 (22218)

Both legs:

Over$239.520.4¢+$130.82

Under$141.0169¢-$1.02

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$386.56

Value

$411.18

PnL

+$24.62

Record

54%

52380-44285 (96665)

poshposhCTR

Over

Invested

$249.35

Value

$311.39

PnL

+$62.04

Record

61%

8687-5628 (14315)

fooooolCTR

Over

Invested

$401.48

Value

$304.76

PnL

-$96.72

Record

50%

9642-9563 (19205)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$184.22

Value

$108.98

PnL

+$11.74

Record

58%

37843-27569 (65412)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$34.66

Value

$35.91

PnL

+$1.25

Record

50%

9398-9322 (18720)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Under

Invested

$7.85

Value

$8.67

PnL

+$0.82

Record

53%

1995-1773 (3768)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$5.73

Value

$5.29

PnL

-$0.44

Record

55%

2171-1792 (3963)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 90%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.