Galatasaray SK vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 3.5

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (45%) · Under at 60¢ · $16K held · ends Oct 26

Over41¢Under59¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 45%

Total Value

$15.9K

Combined PnL

-$77.01

Smart Money Entry

58.6¢ → 59.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 60%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over41%

Under60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$10.9K

Total Shares18,884

Combined PnL-$214.54

Over6 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares11,298

Combined PnL+$137.53

Under — 45%Over — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Underavg 58.8¢	$9.7K	$9.5K	-$208.1	50% 17388-17711 (35099)
us391CTR	Overavg 40¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$81.76	51% 1584-1531 (3115)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 42.5¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$2.2	51% 21853-21263 (43116)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 41¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$39.46	50% 10896-11050 (21946)
ComingBack	Underavg 57.2¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$4.52	62% 3788-2299 (6087)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Overavg 42¢	$525.13	$531.38	+$6.25	47% 2254-2506 (4760)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 42.2¢	$415.69	$382.5	+$3.86	58% 37543-27331 (64874)
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 42¢	$336	$340	+$4	56% 6694-5364 (12058)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 59¢	$241.93	$237.02	-$4.91	60% 39852-26467 (66319)
SA Saber-greed	Underavg 59.6¢	$175.32	$169.19	-$6.14	59% 2422-1677 (4099)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Underavg 57¢	$9.8	$9.89	+$0.09	53% 1987-1734 (3721)

omnibus-076daa

Under

Invested

$9,666.82

Value

$9.5K

PnL

-$208.1

Record

50%

17388-17711 (35099)

us391CTR

Over

Invested

$1,308.18

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$81.76

Record

51%

1584-1531 (3115)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$1,248.24

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$2.2

Record

51%

21853-21263 (43116)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$1,096.17

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$39.46

Record

50%

10896-11050 (21946)

ComingBack

Under

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$4.52

Record

62%

3788-2299 (6087)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Over

Invested

$525.13

Value

$531.38

PnL

+$6.25

Record

47%

2254-2506 (4760)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$415.69

Value

$382.5

PnL

+$3.86

Record

58%

37543-27331 (64874)

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$336

Value

$340

PnL

+$4

Record

56%

6694-5364 (12058)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$241.93

Value

$237.02

PnL

-$4.91

Record

60%

39852-26467 (66319)

Saber-greed

Under

Invested

$175.32

Value

$169.19

PnL

-$6.14

Record

59%

2422-1677 (4099)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Under

Invested

$9.8

Value

$9.89

PnL

+$0.09

Record

53%

1987-1734 (3721)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 60%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.