Galatasaray SK vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 1.5
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (38%) · Over at 78¢ · $873 held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Over
8
Over 38%
$872.86
$79.54
83.9¢ → 77.5¢
-8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 78%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLoo | Overavg 83¢ | $232.86 | $233.21 | +$0.34 | 50% 11010-11181 (22191) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 15.1¢ | $182.48 | $223.53 | +$41.04 | 51% 22075-21479 (43554) |
 0xheavy888 | Overavg 85¢ | $170 | $170 | +$0 | 56% 6705-5375 (12080) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 18.2¢ | $133.57 | $164.97 | +$31.4 | 60% 40137-26767 (66904) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Underavg 16¢ | $37.4 | $43.16 | +$5.76 | 50% 9631-9553 (19184) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 16¢ | $32.14 | $33.15 | +$1 | 54% 52350-44240 (96590) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 15¢ | $2.82 | $2.82 | -$0 | 50% 9397-9321 (18718) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 85¢ | $2.04 | $2.03 | -$0.01 | 55% 2167-1782 (3949) |
Invested
$232.86
Value
$233.21
PnL
+$0.34
Record
50%
11010-11181 (22191)
Invested
$182.48
Value
$223.53
PnL
+$41.04
Record
51%
22075-21479 (43554)
0xheavy888Invested
$170
Value
$170
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
6705-5375 (12080)
Invested
$133.57
Value
$164.97
PnL
+$31.4
Record
60%
40137-26767 (66904)
Invested
$37.4
Value
$43.16
PnL
+$5.76
Record
50%
9631-9553 (19184)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$32.14
Value
$33.15
PnL
+$1
Record
54%
52350-44240 (96590)
Invested
$2.82
Value
$2.82
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
9397-9321 (18718)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.04
Value
$2.03
PnL
-$0.01
Record
55%
2167-1782 (3949)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.