Spread: Galatasaray SK (-1.5)

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Fenerbahçe SK (58%) · Fenerbahçe SK at 78¢ · $43K held · ended Oct 26

Galatasaray SK23¢Fenerbahçe SK77¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Fenerbahçe SK

Consensus Traders

Fenerbahçe SK 58%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$43.0K

Combined PnL

$-1.7K

Smart Money Entry

68.3¢ → 77.5¢

+14% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralFenerbahçe SK at 78%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Fenerbahçe SK

7 of 12 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Galatasaray SK23%

Fenerbahçe SK78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Fenerbahçe SK7 traders

Total Value$37.3K

Total Shares53,916

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Galatasaray SK5 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares17,684

Combined PnL-$364.13

Fenerbahçe SK — 58%Galatasaray SK — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Fenerbahçe SK. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFenerbahçe SK 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrFenerbahçe SK 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedFenerbahçe SK 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Fenerbahçe SK 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Fenerbahçe SKavg 66¢	$22.3K	$21.9K	-$361.34	60% 40192-26830 (67022)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Fenerbahçe SKavg 73¢	$7.3K	$7.3K	+$0	47% 2284-2548 (4832)
GO GoalLineGhost	Fenerbahçe SKavg 70¢	$4.8K	$4.7K	-$79.6	51% 22118-21518 (43636)
NooseracCTR	Galatasaray SKavg 28¢	$4.2K	$4.2K	-$375	52% 5629-5186 (10815)
VeryLucky888	Fenerbahçe SKavg 72.2¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$808.69	58% 37843-27569 (65412)
0xheavy888	Fenerbahçe SKavg 72.9¢	$875.23	$863.99	-$11.24	56% 6708-5376 (12084)
HRTrading	Fenerbahçe SKavg 72¢	$890.74	$806.81	-$83.93	55% 2171-1792 (3963)
RN1CTR	Galatasaray SKavg 37¢	$613.46	$638.67	+$25.21	54% 52380-44285 (96665)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Galatasaray SKavg 36.9¢	$477.92	$467.56	-$10.36	50% 11018-11200 (22218)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Galatasaray SKavg 36.1¢	$246.76	$242.98	-$3.79	50% 9398-9322 (18720)
└ Fenerbahçe SK leg	Fenerbahçe SKavg 52.7¢	$106.16	$157.18	+$51.02
└ Galatasaray SK leg	Galatasaray SKavg 36.1¢	$140.6	$85.8	-$54.8
LI LilybaeumARB<$100	Fenerbahçe SKavg 73.6¢	$124.99	$125.09	+$0.11	62% 13428-8277 (21705)
└ Galatasaray SK leg	Galatasaray SKavg 31¢	$49.56	$63.09	+$13.53
└ Fenerbahçe SK leg	Fenerbahçe SKavg 73.6¢	$75.43	$62	-$13.43
FO foooool	Fenerbahçe SKavg 72¢	$102.24	$102.24	+$0	50% 9642-9563 (19205)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Galatasaray SKavg 27¢	$21.5	$17.52	-$3.98	50% 17615-17950 (35565)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Galatasaray SKavg 28¢	$4.81	$4.81	-$0	53% 1995-1773 (3768)

UpTheBlues

Fenerbahçe SK

Invested

$22,293.9

Value

$21.9K

PnL

-$361.34

Record

60%

40192-26830 (67022)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Fenerbahçe SK

Invested

$7,300

Value

$7.3K

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

2284-2548 (4832)

GoalLineGhost

Fenerbahçe SK

Invested

$4,800.87

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$79.6

Record

51%

22118-21518 (43636)

NooseracCTR

Galatasaray SK

Invested

$4,199.99

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$375

Record

52%

5629-5186 (10815)

VeryLucky888

Fenerbahçe SK

Invested

$1,558.02

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$808.69

Record

58%

37843-27569 (65412)

0xheavy888

Fenerbahçe SK

Invested

$875.23

Value

$863.99

PnL

-$11.24

Record

56%

6708-5376 (12084)

HRTrading

Fenerbahçe SK

Invested

$890.74

Value

$806.81

PnL

-$83.93

Record

55%

2171-1792 (3963)

RN1CTR

Galatasaray SK

Invested

$613.46

Value

$638.67

PnL

+$25.21

Record

54%

52380-44285 (96665)

LuckyLooCTR

Galatasaray SK

Invested

$477.92

Value

$467.56

PnL

-$10.36

Record

50%

11018-11200 (22218)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Galatasaray SK

Invested

$246.76

Value

$242.98

PnL

-$3.79

Record

50%

9398-9322 (18720)

Both legs:

Fenerbahçe SK$106.1652.7¢+$51.02

Galatasaray SK$140.636.1¢-$54.8

LilybaeumARB<$100

Fenerbahçe SK

Invested

$124.99

Value

$125.09

PnL

+$0.11

Record

62%

13428-8277 (21705)

Both legs:

Galatasaray SK$49.5631¢+$13.53

Fenerbahçe SK$75.4373.6¢-$13.43

foooool

Fenerbahçe SK

Invested

$102.24

Value

$102.24

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

9642-9563 (19205)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Galatasaray SK

Invested

$21.5

Value

$17.52

PnL

-$3.98

Record

50%

17615-17950 (35565)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Galatasaray SK

Invested

$4.81

Value

$4.81

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

1995-1773 (3768)

Research grade

NeutralFenerbahçe SK at 78%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Fenerbahçe SK

7 of 12 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Fenerbahçe SK. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFenerbahçe SK 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrFenerbahçe SK 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedFenerbahçe SK 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Fenerbahçe SK 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Fenerbahçe SK wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.