Fenerbahçe SK leading at halftime?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.2K
$40.81
76.9¢ → 100¢
+30% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 75¢ | $750 | $800 | +$50 | 54% 52380-44285 (96665) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Yesavg 19¢ | $151.05 | $151.05 | +$0 | 50% 9398-9322 (18720) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 80¢ | $110.88 | $112.27 | +$1.39 | 51% 22118-21518 (43636) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $72.52 | $59.94 | -$12.58 | 55% 2171-1792 (3963) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $30 | $32 | +$2 | 58% 37843-27569 (65412) |
RN1Invested
$750
Value
$800
PnL
+$50
Record
54%
52380-44285 (96665)
Invested
$151.05
Value
$151.05
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
9398-9322 (18720)
Invested
$110.88
Value
$112.27
PnL
+$1.39
Record
51%
22118-21518 (43636)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$72.52
Value
$59.94
PnL
-$12.58
Record
55%
2171-1792 (3963)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$30
Value
$32
PnL
+$2
Record
58%
37843-27569 (65412)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.