Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-10-26?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 54¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 26

Yes47¢No53¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$34.75

Smart Money Entry

52.7¢ → 53.5¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 54%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes47%

No54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,697

Combined PnL+$34.75

Yes1 trader

Total Value$6.85

Total Shares15

Combined PnL+$0

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Noavg 52.8¢	$654.49	$651.45	+$14.74	58% 34591-25199 (59790)
CA Cannae	Noavg 52.8¢	$358.39	$366.41	+$8.02	53% 14291-12537 (26828)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Noavg 52¢	$301.24	$312.83	+$11.59	47% 2159-2396 (4555)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Noavg 53.3¢	$123.87	$124.27	+$0.4	56% 21078-16865 (37943)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$6.85	$6.85	+$0	53% 1950-1706 (3656)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$654.49

Value

$651.45

PnL

+$14.74

Record

58%

34591-25199 (59790)

Cannae

Invested

$358.39

Value

$366.41

PnL

+$8.02

Record

53%

14291-12537 (26828)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Invested

$301.24

Value

$312.83

PnL

+$11.59

Record

47%

2159-2396 (4555)

LeLynxMalynx

Invested

$123.87

Value

$124.27

PnL

+$0.4

Record

56%

21078-16865 (37943)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.85

Value

$6.85

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1950-1706 (3656)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 54%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.