Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 3 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Galatasaray SK vs. Fenerbahçe SK: 1st Half O/U 1.5

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (30%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 26

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 30%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

-$194.57

Smart Money Entry

73.8¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,874

Combined PnL+$148.56

Over7 traders

Total Value$372.15

Total Shares960

Combined PnL-$343.13

Under — 30%Over — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72CTR	Underavg 75.3¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$94.24	72% 2100-805 (2905)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 26.5¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$59.74	54% 52380-44285 (96665)
└ Over leg	Overavg 26.5¢	$731.9	$607.23	-$124.67
└ Under leg	Underavg 67.9¢	$434.06	$498.98	+$64.92
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 67.6¢	$270.36	$288.69	+$18.33	60% 40192-26830 (67022)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Overavg 89.8¢	$179.58	$199.88	+$20.3	95% 20768-1085 (21853)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Overavg 31¢	$75.32	$53.38	-$21.94	50% 11018-11200 (22218)
bernardi22	Overavg 99.9¢	$228.83	$50.4	-$178.43	56% 1201-930 (2131)
-R -reef	Overavg 96.4¢	$210.59	$48.06	-$162.54	52% 454-420 (874)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Underavg 3¢	$1.44	$37.44	+$36	67% 22347-10922 (33269)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 18.6¢	$12.26	$14.42	+$2.16	55% 2171-1792 (3963)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Overavg 37¢	$7.5	$4.46	-$3.04	50% 17615-17950 (35565)
RO Rocky31<$100	Overavg 17¢	$1.2	$1.55	+$0.35	73% 1358-513 (1871)

0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72CTR

Under

Invested

$2,657

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$94.24

Record

72%

2100-805 (2905)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,165.96

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$59.74

Record

54%

52380-44285 (96665)

Both legs:

Over$731.926.5¢-$124.67

Under$434.0667.9¢+$64.92

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$270.36

Value

$288.69

PnL

+$18.33

Record

60%

40192-26830 (67022)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Over

Invested

$179.58

Value

$199.88

PnL

+$20.3

Record

95%

20768-1085 (21853)

LuckyLoo<$100

Over

Invested

$75.32

Value

$53.38

PnL

-$21.94

Record

50%

11018-11200 (22218)

bernardi22

Over

Invested

$228.83

Value

$50.4

PnL

-$178.43

Record

56%

1201-930 (2131)

-R

-reef

Over

Invested

$210.59

Value

$48.06

PnL

-$162.54

Record

52%

454-420 (874)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.44

Value

$37.44

PnL

+$36

Record

67%

22347-10922 (33269)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$12.26

Value

$14.42

PnL

+$2.16

Record

55%

2171-1792 (3963)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Over

Invested

$7.5

Value

$4.46

PnL

-$3.04

Record

50%

17615-17950 (35565)

Rocky31<$100

Over

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.55

PnL

+$0.35

Record

73%

1358-513 (1871)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.