Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-10-26?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 74¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 26

Yes27¢No73¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$8.41

Smart Money Entry

73.1¢ → 73.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes27%

No74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,956

Combined PnL+$10.16

Yes2 traders

Total Value$288.93

Total Shares1,090

Combined PnL-$1.75

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 73.1¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$10.14	60% 39862-26488 (66350)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 27¢	$194.51	$190.91	-$3.6	50% 17407-17735 (35142)
CA Cannae	Noavg 72¢	$130.1	$131	+$0.9	53% 15234-13442 (28676)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$96.17	$98.02	+$1.85	51% 21869-21276 (43145)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Noavg 72.5¢	$21.43	$20.55	-$0.88	53% 1987-1734 (3721)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$2,008.17

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$10.14

Record

60%

39862-26488 (66350)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$194.51

Value

$190.91

PnL

-$3.6

Record

50%

17407-17735 (35142)

Cannae

Invested

$130.1

Value

$131

PnL

+$0.9

Record

53%

15234-13442 (28676)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$96.17

Value

$98.02

PnL

+$1.85

Record

51%

21869-21276 (43145)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Invested

$21.43

Value

$20.55

PnL

-$0.88

Record

53%

1987-1734 (3721)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.