Will Galatasaray SK vs. Fenerbahçe SK end in a draw?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 76¢ · $619 held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$619.12
$5.8
75¢ → 75.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 76%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 75¢ | $399 | $401.66 | +$2.66 | 51% 21726-21125 (42851) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 75¢ | $225 | $97.92 | +$2.35 | 58% 37344-27188 (64532) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $68.29 | $68.74 | +$0.46 | 53% 15086-13191 (28277) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $40.79 | $41.06 | +$0.27 | 57% 24239-18661 (42900) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $9.68 | $9.74 | +$0.06 | 53% 1987-1733 (3720) |
Invested
$399
Value
$401.66
PnL
+$2.66
Record
51%
21726-21125 (42851)
VeryLucky888Invested
$225
Value
$97.92
PnL
+$2.35
Record
58%
37344-27188 (64532)
Invested
$68.29
Value
$68.74
PnL
+$0.46
Record
53%
15086-13191 (28277)
Invested
$40.79
Value
$41.06
PnL
+$0.27
Record
57%
24239-18661 (42900)
Invested
$9.68
Value
$9.74
PnL
+$0.06
Record
53%
1987-1733 (3720)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.