Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 8 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Galatasaray SK vs. Fenerbahçe SK: Both Teams to Score

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 0.1¢ · $990 held · ended Oct 26

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$990.2

Combined PnL

$180.42

Smart Money Entry

33.5¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$707.82

Total Shares1,455

Combined PnL+$209.73

Yes4 traders

Total Value$282.39

Total Shares370

Combined PnL-$29.31

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 35¢	$287.73	$448.36	+$160.63	60% 40192-26830 (67022)
0X 0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609	Yesavg 94.6¢	$211.97	$199.35	-$12.62	82% 2255-511 (2766)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 33¢	$135.39	$176.28	+$30.65	58% 37843-27569 (65412)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Yesavg 62.8¢	$59.05	$54.93	-$4.11	50% 11018-11200 (22218)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Noavg 55¢	$49.93	$50.84	+$0.91	50% 9642-9563 (19205)
RO Rocko33<$100	Yesavg 75¢	$30	$17.6	-$12.4	64% 913-510 (1423)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Yesavg 57.9¢	$10.67	$10.5	-$0.17	50% 9398-9322 (18720)
poshposhCTR<$100	Noavg 5¢	$0.87	$9.79	+$8.91	61% 8687-5628 (14315)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Noavg 3.2¢	$2.75	$9.57	+$6.82	48% 4204-4644 (8848)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Noavg 42¢	$11	$7.06	+$0.26	53% 1995-1773 (3768)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 39¢	$3.59	$5.16	+$1.56	55% 2171-1792 (3963)
RN1CTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$0.79	$0.77	-$0.02	54% 52380-44285 (96665)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$287.73

Value

$448.36

PnL

+$160.63

Record

60%

40192-26830 (67022)

0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609

Yes

Invested

$211.97

Value

$199.35

PnL

-$12.62

Record

82%

2255-511 (2766)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$135.39

Value

$176.28

PnL

+$30.65

Record

58%

37843-27569 (65412)

LuckyLoo<$100

Yes

Invested

$59.05

Value

$54.93

PnL

-$4.11

Record

50%

11018-11200 (22218)

fooooolCTR<$100

Invested

$49.93

Value

$50.84

PnL

+$0.91

Record

50%

9642-9563 (19205)

Rocko33<$100

Yes

Invested

$30

Value

$17.6

PnL

-$12.4

Record

64%

913-510 (1423)

SnakeBall<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.67

Value

$10.5

PnL

-$0.17

Record

50%

9398-9322 (18720)

poshposhCTR<$100

Invested

$0.87

Value

$9.79

PnL

+$8.91

Record

61%

8687-5628 (14315)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Invested

$2.75

Value

$9.57

PnL

+$6.82

Record

48%

4204-4644 (8848)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Invested

$11

Value

$7.06

PnL

+$0.26

Record

53%

1995-1773 (3768)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$3.59

Value

$5.16

PnL

+$1.56

Record

55%

2171-1792 (3963)

RN1CTR<$100

Invested

$0.79

Value

$0.77

PnL

-$0.02

Record

54%

52380-44285 (96665)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.