Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (100%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Beşiktaş JK vs. Rams Başakşehir FK: O/U 5.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 0.5¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 67%
$1.3K
$81.6
12.9¢ → 0.5¢
-96% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBallCTR | Overavg 13¢ | $418.21 | $466.47 | +$48.25 | 50% 9393-9316 (18709) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 86¢ | $459.67 | $457 | -$2.67 | 60% 39862-26488 (66350) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 13¢ | $281.84 | $309.29 | +$27.45 | 51% 21869-21276 (43145) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 10.2¢ | $20.61 | $29.23 | +$8.62 | 50% 10912-11060 (21972) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 94.7¢ | $23.98 | $23.91 | -$0.08 | 54% 51866-43791 (95657) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 13¢ | $0.15 | $0.17 | +$0.02 | 58% 37579-27344 (64923) |
Invested
$418.21
Value
$466.47
PnL
+$48.25
Record
50%
9393-9316 (18709)
Invested
$459.67
Value
$457
PnL
-$2.67
Record
60%
39862-26488 (66350)
Invested
$281.84
Value
$309.29
PnL
+$27.45
Record
51%
21869-21276 (43145)
Invested
$20.61
Value
$29.23
PnL
+$8.62
Record
50%
10912-11060 (21972)
RN1<$100Invested
$23.98
Value
$23.91
PnL
-$0.08
Record
54%
51866-43791 (95657)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$0.15
Value
$0.17
PnL
+$0.02
Record
58%
37579-27344 (64923)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.