Beşiktaş JK vs. Rams Başakşehir FK: O/U 4.5
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (88%) · Under at 98¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 88%
1 arb excluded
$3.7K
-$244.17
84.8¢ → 98¢
+16% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 98%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 84¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$116.32 | 51% 21869-21276 (43145) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 91¢ | $1.5K | $1.2K | -$305.46 | 60% 39862-26488 (66350) |
 0xheavy888 | Underavg 72¢ | $299.09 | $303.09 | +$4 | 56% 6695-5367 (12062) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 72¢ | $290.43 | $247.09 | +$4.14 | 58% 37579-27344 (64923) |
FO fooooolARB<$100 | Underavg 76.4¢ | $203 | $246.33 | +$43.33 | 50% 9550-9470 (19020) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 76.4¢ | $177.44 | $169.65 | -$7.79 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 9¢ | $25.56 | $76.68 | +$51.12 | |
LU LuckyLoo | Underavg 93.4¢ | $180.13 | $138.17 | -$41.97 | 50% 10912-11060 (21972) |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 9¢ | $134.06 | $111.88 | -$22.18 | 54% 51866-43791 (95657) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 72¢ | $41.04 | $41.61 | +$0.57 | 56% 24547-18914 (43461) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 73¢ | $1.46 | $1.92 | +$0.4 | 55% 2163-1776 (3939) |
Invested
$1,288.58
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$116.32
Record
51%
21869-21276 (43145)
Invested
$1,544.27
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$305.46
Record
60%
39862-26488 (66350)
0xheavy888Invested
$299.09
Value
$303.09
PnL
+$4
Record
56%
6695-5367 (12062)
VeryLucky888Invested
$290.43
Value
$247.09
PnL
+$4.14
Record
58%
37579-27344 (64923)
Invested
$203
Value
$246.33
PnL
+$43.33
Record
50%
9550-9470 (19020)
Both legs:
Invested
$180.13
Value
$138.17
PnL
-$41.97
Record
50%
10912-11060 (21972)
RN1CTRInvested
$134.06
Value
$111.88
PnL
-$22.18
Record
54%
51866-43791 (95657)
Invested
$41.04
Value
$41.61
PnL
+$0.57
Record
56%
24547-18914 (43461)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.46
Value
$1.92
PnL
+$0.4
Record
55%
2163-1776 (3939)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.