Beşiktaş JK vs. Rams Başakşehir FK: O/U 2.5

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (73%) · Under at 85¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 26

Over15¢Under85¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 73%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$199.27

Smart Money Entry

70.7¢ → 85¢

+20% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 85%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 11 top traders (73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over15%

Under85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares3,115

Combined PnL+$199.55

Over3 traders

Total Value$85.13

Total Shares229

Combined PnL-$0.28

Under — 73%Over — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MY myxi	Underavg 81.7¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$11.26	67% 291-143 (434)
RN1	Underavg 64.8¢	$555.78	$706.39	+$150.61	54% 51866-43791 (95657)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Overavg 23¢	$296.62	$439.39	+$142.77	50% 9550-9470 (19020)
└ Under leg	Underavg 37.2¢	$146.84	$325.57	+$178.73
└ Over leg	Overavg 23¢	$149.78	$113.82	-$35.96
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 70.8¢	$252.65	$243.61	-$9.04	51% 21869-21276 (43145)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 43.8¢	$132.92	$229.07	+$96.15	60% 39862-26488 (66350)
LI LilybaeumARB<$100	Overavg 30.9¢	$101.25	$74.23	-$27.01	62% 13400-8249 (21649)
└ Over leg	Overavg 30.9¢	$79.86	$49.16	-$30.7
└ Under leg	Underavg 69.1¢	$21.39	$25.07	+$3.68
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Underavg 54¢	$64.8	$38.4	-$26.4	50% 17407-17735 (35142)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 34.5¢	$40.96	$38.01	-$2.94	50% 10912-11060 (21972)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Overavg 65.1¢	$34.91	$36.45	+$1.54	53% 1987-1734 (3721)
LA LaarsYCTR<$100	Overavg 17¢	$9.54	$10.66	+$1.12	50% 3289-3246 (6535)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 30.9¢	$12.09	$6.51	+$0.43	58% 37579-27344 (64923)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 31.2¢	$5.6	$5.74	+$0.14	56% 24547-18914 (43461)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 49¢	$3.11	$2.03	-$1.08	50% 9393-9316 (18709)

myxi

Under

Invested

$1,242.46

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$11.26

Record

67%

291-143 (434)

RN1

Under

Invested

$555.78

Value

$706.39

PnL

+$150.61

Record

54%

51866-43791 (95657)

fooooolARB<$100

Over

Invested

$296.62

Value

$439.39

PnL

+$142.77

Record

50%

9550-9470 (19020)

Both legs:

Under$146.8437.2¢+$178.73

Over$149.7823¢-$35.96

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$252.65

Value

$243.61

PnL

-$9.04

Record

51%

21869-21276 (43145)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$132.92

Value

$229.07

PnL

+$96.15

Record

60%

39862-26488 (66350)

LilybaeumARB<$100

Over

Invested

$101.25

Value

$74.23

PnL

-$27.01

Record

62%

13400-8249 (21649)

Both legs:

Over$79.8630.9¢-$30.7

Under$21.3969.1¢+$3.68

omnibus-076daa<$100

Under

Invested

$64.8

Value

$38.4

PnL

-$26.4

Record

50%

17407-17735 (35142)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$40.96

Value

$38.01

PnL

-$2.94

Record

50%

10912-11060 (21972)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$34.91

Value

$36.45

PnL

+$1.54

Record

53%

1987-1734 (3721)

LaarsYCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.54

Value

$10.66

PnL

+$1.12

Record

50%

3289-3246 (6535)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$12.09

Value

$6.51

PnL

+$0.43

Record

58%

37579-27344 (64923)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$5.6

Value

$5.74

PnL

+$0.14

Record

56%

24547-18914 (43461)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$3.11

Value

$2.03

PnL

-$1.08

Record

50%

9393-9316 (18709)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 85%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 11 top traders (73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.6%

85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.