Beşiktaş JK vs. Rams Başakşehir FK: O/U 1.5
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 60¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 75%
1 arb excluded
$3.8K
$998.25
33¢ → 59.5¢
+81% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 60%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 32.9¢ | $681.23 | $1.2K | +$529.74 | 60% 39862-26488 (66350) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 29.3¢ | $805.12 | $1.2K | +$383.28 | 51% 21869-21276 (43145) |
 RN1 | Underavg 39.9¢ | $450.38 | $581.76 | +$131.38 | 54% 51866-43791 (95657) |
LU LuckyLooARB<$100 | Overavg 81¢ | $757.18 | $578.55 | -$178.63 | 50% 10912-11060 (21972) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 81¢ | $653.67 | $451.92 | -$201.75 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 36¢ | $103.51 | $126.63 | +$23.12 | |
FO fooooolCTR | Overavg 45.2¢ | $177.81 | $174.12 | -$3.69 | 50% 9550-9470 (19020) |
LA LaarsYCTR | Overavg 72.1¢ | $116.45 | $73.47 | -$42.98 | 50% 3289-3246 (6535) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Underavg 32¢ | $6.49 | $7 | +$0.51 | 50% 9393-9316 (18709) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 13¢ | $3.92 | $3.92 | -$0 | 58% 37579-27344 (64923) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 13¢ | $0.68 | $0.68 | +$0 | 55% 2163-1776 (3939) |
Invested
$681.23
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$529.74
Record
60%
39862-26488 (66350)
Invested
$805.12
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$383.28
Record
51%
21869-21276 (43145)
RN1Invested
$450.38
Value
$581.76
PnL
+$131.38
Record
54%
51866-43791 (95657)
Invested
$757.18
Value
$578.55
PnL
-$178.63
Record
50%
10912-11060 (21972)
Both legs:
Invested
$177.81
Value
$174.12
PnL
-$3.69
Record
50%
9550-9470 (19020)
Invested
$116.45
Value
$73.47
PnL
-$42.98
Record
50%
3289-3246 (6535)
Invested
$6.49
Value
$7
PnL
+$0.51
Record
50%
9393-9316 (18709)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$3.92
Value
$3.92
PnL
-$0
Record
58%
37579-27344 (64923)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$0.68
Value
$0.68
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
2163-1776 (3939)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.