Beşiktaş JK vs. Rams Başakşehir FK: O/U 0.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 77¢ · $195K held · ended Oct 26

Over77¢Under23¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$195.2K

Combined PnL

$13.8K

Smart Money Entry

93.3¢ → 77.5¢

-17% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 77%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over77%

Under23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$162.4K

Total Shares182,166

Combined PnL$-7.8K

Under4 traders

Total Value$32.1K

Total Shares146,771

Combined PnL+$21.6K

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH thetesterguy	Overavg 93.4¢	$165.9K	$158.1K	$-7.7K	97% 31-1 (32)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 7¢	$9.7K	$30.2K	+$20.5K	60% 39862-26488 (66350)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 88.6¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	-$2.93	51% 21869-21276 (43145)
FO fooooolCTR	Underavg 6.3¢	$684.33	$1.7K	+$1.0K	50% 9550-9470 (19020)
LU LuckyLoo	Overavg 94.5¢	$795.65	$773.08	-$22.57	50% 10912-11060 (21972)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 12.9¢	$516.62	$674.2	+$157.58	54% 51866-43791 (95657)
└ Under leg	Underavg 12.9¢	$273.1	$433.26	+$160.16
└ Over leg	Overavg 80.4¢	$243.52	$240.94	-$2.58
SN SnakeBall	Overavg 83.6¢	$459.8	$459.53	-$0.27	50% 9393-9316 (18709)
HRTradingCTR	Underavg 5.9¢	$109.22	$212.82	+$103.6	55% 2163-1776 (3939)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Underavg 9.6¢	$1.95	$1.11	+$0.24	53% 1987-1734 (3721)

thetesterguy

Over

Invested

$165,867.09

Value

$158.1K

PnL

$-7.7K

Record

97%

31-1 (32)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$9,722.96

Value

$30.2K

PnL

+$20.5K

Record

60%

39862-26488 (66350)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$3,071.07

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$2.93

Record

51%

21869-21276 (43145)

fooooolCTR

Under

Invested

$684.33

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

50%

9550-9470 (19020)

LuckyLoo

Over

Invested

$795.65

Value

$773.08

PnL

-$22.57

Record

50%

10912-11060 (21972)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$516.62

Value

$674.2

PnL

+$157.58

Record

54%

51866-43791 (95657)

Both legs:

Under$273.112.9¢+$160.16

Over$243.5280.4¢-$2.58

SnakeBall

Over

Invested

$459.8

Value

$459.53

PnL

-$0.27

Record

50%

9393-9316 (18709)

HRTradingCTR

Under

Invested

$109.22

Value

$212.82

PnL

+$103.6

Record

55%

2163-1776 (3939)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.95

Value

$1.11

PnL

+$0.24

Record

53%

1987-1734 (3721)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 77%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.