Spread: Beşiktaş JK (-2.5)

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Rams Başakşehir FK (60%) · Rams Başakşehir FK at 74¢ · $550 held · ends Oct 26

Beşiktaş JK27¢Rams Başakşehir FK73¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Rams Başakşehir FK

Consensus Traders

Rams Başakşehir FK 60%

Total Value

$549.75

Combined PnL

-$4.8

Smart Money Entry

72¢ → 73.5¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralRams Başakşehir FK at 74%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rams Başakşehir FK

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Beşiktaş JK27%

Rams Başakşehir FK74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rams Başakşehir FK3 traders

Total Value$374.29

Total Shares503

Combined PnL+$12.15

Beşiktaş JK2 traders

Total Value$175.45

Total Shares688

Combined PnL-$16.95

Rams Başakşehir FK — 60%Beşiktaş JK — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Rams Başakşehir FKavg 72¢	$343.8	$355.74	+$11.94	51% 21726-21125 (42851)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Beşiktaş JKavg 28¢	$190.85	$174.04	-$16.81	60% 39756-26331 (66087)
0xheavy888<$100	Rams Başakşehir FKavg 72¢	$12.21	$12.3	+$0.08	56% 6682-5351 (12033)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Rams Başakşehir FKavg 73¢	$6.13	$6.26	+$0.13	53% 1987-1733 (3720)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Beşiktaş JKavg 28¢	$1.56	$1.42	-$0.14	50% 9386-9307 (18693)

GoalLineGhost

Rams Başakşehir FK

Invested

$343.8

Value

$355.74

PnL

+$11.94

Record

51%

21726-21125 (42851)

UpTheBluesCTR

Beşiktaş JK

Invested

$190.85

Value

$174.04

PnL

-$16.81

Record

60%

39756-26331 (66087)

0xheavy888<$100

Rams Başakşehir FK

Invested

$12.21

Value

$12.3

PnL

+$0.08

Record

56%

6682-5351 (12033)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Rams Başakşehir FK

Invested

$6.13

Value

$6.26

PnL

+$0.13

Record

53%

1987-1733 (3720)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Beşiktaş JK

Invested

$1.56

Value

$1.42

PnL

-$0.14

Record

50%

9386-9307 (18693)

Research grade

NeutralRams Başakşehir FK at 74%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Rams Başakşehir FK

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rams Başakşehir FK wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.