Spread: Beşiktaş JK (-1.5)

1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Rams Başakşehir FK (13%) · Rams Başakşehir FK at 54¢ · $12K held · ends Oct 26

Beşiktaş JK47¢Rams Başakşehir FK53¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Rams Başakşehir FK

Consensus Traders

Rams Başakşehir FK 13%

Total Value

$12.0K

Combined PnL

$59.44

Research grade

NeutralRams Başakşehir FK at 54%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rams Başakşehir FK

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Beşiktaş JK47%

Rams Başakşehir FK54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rams Başakşehir FK1 trader

Total Value$8.7K

Total Shares16,359

Combined PnL+$37.74

Beşiktaş JK7 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares7,112

Combined PnL+$21.7

Rams Başakşehir FK — 13%Beşiktaş JK — 87%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Rams Başakşehir FKavg 52.8¢	$8.6K	$8.7K	+$37.74	49% 17262-17622 (34884)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Beşiktaş JKavg 47.3¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$7.34	51% 21726-21125 (42851)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Beşiktaş JKavg 47.1¢	$428.23	$432.19	+$3.95	60% 39756-26331 (66087)
VeryLucky888CTR	Beşiktaş JKavg 46.7¢	$424.9	$427.5	+$7.6	58% 37344-27188 (64532)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Beşiktaş JKavg 47¢	$166.59	$168.37	+$1.77	57% 24239-18661 (42900)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Beşiktaş JKavg 47.5¢	$78.94	$78.96	+$0.02	50% 9386-9307 (18693)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Beşiktaş JKavg 46¢	$39.13	$39.98	+$0.85	56% 6682-5351 (12033)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Beşiktaş JKavg 47¢	$15.51	$15.67	+$0.16	50% 10817-10949 (21766)

omnibus-076daa

Rams Başakşehir FK

Invested

$8,632.68

Value

$8.7K

PnL

+$37.74

Record

49%

17262-17622 (34884)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Beşiktaş JK

Invested

$2,208

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$7.34

Record

51%

21726-21125 (42851)

UpTheBluesCTR

Beşiktaş JK

Invested

$428.23

Value

$432.19

PnL

+$3.95

Record

60%

39756-26331 (66087)

VeryLucky888CTR

Beşiktaş JK

Invested

$424.9

Value

$427.5

PnL

+$7.6

Record

58%

37344-27188 (64532)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Beşiktaş JK

Invested

$166.59

Value

$168.37

PnL

+$1.77

Record

57%

24239-18661 (42900)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Beşiktaş JK

Invested

$78.94

Value

$78.96

PnL

+$0.02

Record

50%

9386-9307 (18693)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Beşiktaş JK

Invested

$39.13

Value

$39.98

PnL

+$0.85

Record

56%

6682-5351 (12033)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Beşiktaş JK

Invested

$15.51

Value

$15.67

PnL

+$0.16

Record

50%

10817-10949 (21766)

Research grade

NeutralRams Başakşehir FK at 54%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Rams Başakşehir FK

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rams Başakşehir FK wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.