Beşiktaş JK vs. Rams Başakşehir FK: 1st Half O/U 0.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 100¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 71%
1 arb excluded
$10.0K
$1.6K
70.6¢ → 100¢
+42% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72 | Underavg 72.4¢ | $5.4K | $7.2K | +$1.8K | 72% 2099-805 (2904) |
 JohnLKellyJrCTR | Overavg 33¢ | $990 | $1.0K | +$15 | 53% 1078-955 (2033) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Underavg 50.7¢ | $739.17 | $954.28 | +$215.12 | 54% 51866-43791 (95657) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 30¢ | $355.68 | $545.62 | +$189.95 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 50.7¢ | $383.49 | $408.66 | +$25.17 | |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Overavg 24.8¢ | $912.38 | $646.89 | -$265.49 | 60% 39862-26488 (66350) |
LU LuckyLoo | Underavg 28.6¢ | $75.89 | $146.5 | +$70.6 | 50% 10912-11060 (21972) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Underavg 34¢ | $49.83 | $29.31 | -$20.52 | 50% 17407-17735 (35142) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Underavg 34.2¢ | $6.14 | $3.59 | -$2.55 | 50% 9393-9316 (18709) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 67¢ | $1.34 | $2 | +$0.66 | 55% 2163-1776 (3939) |
Invested
$5,384.48
Value
$7.2K
PnL
+$1.8K
Record
72%
2099-805 (2904)
JohnLKellyJrCTRInvested
$990
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$15
Record
53%
1078-955 (2033)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$739.17
Value
$954.28
PnL
+$215.12
Record
54%
51866-43791 (95657)
Both legs:
Invested
$912.38
Value
$646.89
PnL
-$265.49
Record
60%
39862-26488 (66350)
Invested
$75.89
Value
$146.5
PnL
+$70.6
Record
50%
10912-11060 (21972)
Invested
$49.83
Value
$29.31
PnL
-$20.52
Record
50%
17407-17735 (35142)
Invested
$6.14
Value
$3.59
PnL
-$2.55
Record
50%
9393-9316 (18709)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.34
Value
$2
PnL
+$0.66
Record
55%
2163-1776 (3939)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.