Will Beşiktaş JK vs. Rams Başakşehir FK end in a draw?
12 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 67¢ · $12K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
13
No 92%
$11.9K
-$834.22
81.8¢ → 67¢
-18% since entry · 12 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 67%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 49%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 82.9¢ | $2.8K | $2.4K | -$308.67 | 60% 39862-26488 (66350) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 82.5¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$12.71 | 58% 37579-27344 (64923) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 82¢ | $2.0K | $1.9K | -$162.07 | 51% 21869-21276 (43145) |
 oieshfn345 | Noavg 78.9¢ | $1.9K | $1.6K | -$249.71 | 57% 1560-1154 (2714) |
CA Cannae | Noavg 82.4¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$9.33 | 53% 15234-13442 (28676) |
 RN1 | Noavg 82¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$133.12 | 54% 51866-43791 (95657) |
 0xheavy888 | Noavg 82.5¢ | $660 | $664 | +$4 | 56% 6695-5367 (12062) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 82¢ | $565.18 | $571.7 | +$6.52 | 50% 9393-9316 (18709) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $63.72 | $58.34 | -$3.49 | 55% 2163-1776 (3939) |
FO foooool<$100 | Noavg 73.1¢ | $56.28 | $51.59 | -$4.69 | 50% 9550-9470 (19020) |
LO lonmi2511<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $49 | $43.92 | -$5.08 | 64% 993-568 (1561) |
LI Lilybaeum<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $41.9 | $42.41 | +$0.51 | 62% 13400-8249 (21649) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $25.42 | $24.96 | -$0.45 | 50% 10912-11060 (21972) |
Invested
$2,752.75
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$308.67
Record
60%
39862-26488 (66350)
VeryLucky888Invested
$2,038.13
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$12.71
Record
58%
37579-27344 (64923)
Invested
$2,040.13
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$162.07
Record
51%
21869-21276 (43145)
oieshfn345Invested
$1,887.43
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$249.71
Record
57%
1560-1154 (2714)
Invested
$1,352.18
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$9.33
Record
53%
15234-13442 (28676)
RN1Invested
$1,309.74
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$133.12
Record
54%
51866-43791 (95657)
0xheavy888Invested
$660
Value
$664
PnL
+$4
Record
56%
6695-5367 (12062)
Invested
$565.18
Value
$571.7
PnL
+$6.52
Record
50%
9393-9316 (18709)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$63.72
Value
$58.34
PnL
-$3.49
Record
55%
2163-1776 (3939)
Invested
$56.28
Value
$51.59
PnL
-$4.69
Record
50%
9550-9470 (19020)
Invested
$49
Value
$43.92
PnL
-$5.08
Record
64%
993-568 (1561)
Invested
$41.9
Value
$42.41
PnL
+$0.51
Record
62%
13400-8249 (21649)
Invested
$25.42
Value
$24.96
PnL
-$0.45
Record
50%
10912-11060 (21972)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.