Beşiktaş JK vs. Rams Başakşehir FK: Both Teams to Score
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 80¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$1.7K
$178.34
60.3¢ → 80¢
+33% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 80%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 65.1¢ | $676.08 | $753.32 | +$77.24 | 50% 10912-11060 (21972) |
FO foooool | Noavg 62¢ | $455.11 | $435.92 | -$19.18 | 50% 9550-9470 (19020) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 50.3¢ | $227.34 | $347.96 | +$120.62 | 60% 39862-26488 (66350) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Yesavg 57¢ | $114 | $125 | +$11 | 56% 6695-5367 (12062) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $98.53 | $27 | -$2.52 | 58% 37579-27344 (64923) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $18.92 | $19.22 | +$0.29 | 54% 51866-43791 (95657) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 55.4¢ | $28.23 | $19.13 | -$9.11 | 50% 9393-9316 (18709) |
Invested
$676.08
Value
$753.32
PnL
+$77.24
Record
50%
10912-11060 (21972)
Invested
$455.11
Value
$435.92
PnL
-$19.18
Record
50%
9550-9470 (19020)
Invested
$227.34
Value
$347.96
PnL
+$120.62
Record
60%
39862-26488 (66350)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$114
Value
$125
PnL
+$11
Record
56%
6695-5367 (12062)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$98.53
Value
$27
PnL
-$2.52
Record
58%
37579-27344 (64923)
RN1<$100Invested
$18.92
Value
$19.22
PnL
+$0.29
Record
54%
51866-43791 (95657)
Invested
$28.23
Value
$19.13
PnL
-$9.11
Record
50%
9393-9316 (18709)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.