Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (72%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-10-26?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 28¢ · $64 held · ends Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 100%
$63.81
$3.21
Research grade
AvoidNo at 28%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 72%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 28¢ | $19.6 | $20.65 | +$1.05 | 56% 21200-16956 (38156) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Noavg 29¢ | $11.89 | $12.09 | +$0.2 | 69% 35392-15597 (50989) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Noavg 28¢ | $10.96 | $11.55 | +$0.59 | 53% 14356-12582 (26938) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 28¢ | $10.71 | $11.28 | +$0.57 | 50% 9228-9142 (18370) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 28¢ | $17.87 | $6.75 | +$0.77 | 58% 34781-25357 (60138) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Noavg 28¢ | $1.46 | $1.49 | +$0.03 | 51% 19245-18633 (37878) |
Invested
$19.6
Value
$20.65
PnL
+$1.05
Record
56%
21200-16956 (38156)
Invested
$11.89
Value
$12.09
PnL
+$0.2
Record
69%
35392-15597 (50989)
Invested
$10.96
Value
$11.55
PnL
+$0.59
Record
53%
14356-12582 (26938)
Invested
$10.71
Value
$11.28
PnL
+$0.57
Record
50%
9228-9142 (18370)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$17.87
Value
$6.75
PnL
+$0.77
Record
58%
34781-25357 (60138)
Invested
$1.46
Value
$1.49
PnL
+$0.03
Record
51%
19245-18633 (37878)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.