Trump goes to space in 2026?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $5K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$4.7K
$48.56
97.1¢ → 98.2¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Car | Noavg 97¢ | $4.0K | $3.8K | +$43.84 | 67% 4129-1998 (6127) |
 yen4u | Noavg 98¢ | $709.86 | $696.73 | +$1.39 | 85% 755-130 (885) |
 GonTanaka | Noavg 96.3¢ | $180 | $176.67 | +$3.3 | 58% 170-124 (294) |
 PaddyAlpha<$100 | Noavg 97.4¢ | $3.05 | $3.07 | +$0.03 | 60% 978-660 (1638) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.