Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 71¢ · $869 held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
1 arb excluded
$869.01
-$0.87
73.5¢ → 71¢
-3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 71%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 72.5¢ | $290 | $270 | -$20 | 57% 15028-11433 (26461) |
AJ AJSVCTR | Yesavg 23.8¢ | $218.88 | $236.75 | +$17.87 | 36% 13969-24716 (38685) |
 vinii | Noavg 75.1¢ | $184.15 | $180.22 | -$3.93 | 74% 2583-928 (3511) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 71.5¢ | $121.2 | $120.01 | -$1.02 | 43% 269-355 (624) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 71.5¢ | $85.8 | $81.01 | -$4.82 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 29.3¢ | $35.2 | $39 | +$3.8 | |
 crypto-basenjiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23.8¢ | $45.38 | $62.02 | +$5.19 | 40% 157-238 (395) |
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$290
Value
$270
PnL
-$20
Record
57%
15028-11433 (26461)
Invested
$218.88
Value
$236.75
PnL
+$17.87
Record
36%
13969-24716 (38685)
viniiInvested
$184.15
Value
$180.22
PnL
-$3.93
Record
74%
2583-928 (3511)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$121.2
Value
$120.01
PnL
-$1.02
Record
43%
269-355 (624)
Both legs:
crypto-basenjiCTR<$100Invested
$45.38
Value
$62.02
PnL
+$5.19
Record
40%
157-238 (395)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.