Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (72%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by February 28, 2027?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 28¢ · $1K held · ends Mar 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 75%
1 arb excluded
$1.3K
-$92.24
33.5¢ → 28.5¢
-15% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 28%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 72%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+35 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Late
516h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
4 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AJ AJSVARB<$100 | Noavg 65.6¢ | $783.07 | $542.3 | +$2.64 | 36% 12963-22716 (35679) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 65.6¢ | $351.8 | $375.51 | -$14.2 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 33.2¢ | $190.87 | $166.79 | +$16.84 | |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 77¢ | $375.65 | $345.78 | -$29.88 | 57% 14700-11057 (25757) |
 Optimus-CTR | Yesavg 33.6¢ | $294.4 | $254.33 | -$44.45 | 61% 1184-749 (1933) |
DI Dimpled-FoalCTR | Yesavg 36¢ | $107.47 | $86.57 | -$17.91 | 53% 135-119 (254) |
SE SeniorLaghettoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $54.23 | $54.23 | +$0 | 70% 398-172 (570) |
Invested
$783.07
Value
$542.3
PnL
+$2.64
Record
36%
12963-22716 (35679)
Both legs:
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$375.65
Value
$345.78
PnL
-$29.88
Record
57%
14700-11057 (25757)
Optimus-CTRInvested
$294.4
Value
$254.33
PnL
-$44.45
Record
61%
1184-749 (1933)
Invested
$107.47
Value
$86.57
PnL
-$17.91
Record
53%
135-119 (254)
Invested
$54.23
Value
$54.23
PnL
+$0
Record
70%
398-172 (570)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.