Will Orebro SK win on 2026-10-26?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 67¢ · $140 held · ends Oct 26

Yes34¢No66¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$139.95

Combined PnL

-$5.07

Smart Money Entry

65¢ → 66.5¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 67%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes34%

No67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$90.84

Total Shares164

Combined PnL-$15.55

Yes3 traders

Total Value$49.11

Total Shares110

Combined PnL+$10.48

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 65¢	$103.1	$88.03	-$15.07	51% 21492-20930 (42422)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$30.01	$38.16	+$8.15	53% 14998-13126 (28124)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$7.56	$9.61	+$2.05	50% 10665-10792 (21457)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 65¢	$3.3	$2.81	-$0.48	47% 68-78 (146)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$1.05	$1.34	+$0.28	55% 2064-1680 (3744)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$103.1

Value

$88.03

PnL

-$15.07

Record

51%

21492-20930 (42422)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.01

Value

$38.16

PnL

+$8.15

Record

53%

14998-13126 (28124)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.56

Value

$9.61

PnL

+$2.05

Record

50%

10665-10792 (21457)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$3.3

Value

$2.81

PnL

-$0.48

Record

47%

68-78 (146)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.05

Value

$1.34

PnL

+$0.28

Record

55%

2064-1680 (3744)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 67%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.