Will Falkenbergs FF win on 2026-10-26?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 59¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$3.3K
$228.29
59.1¢ → 58.5¢
-1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 59%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542 | Noavg 58.9¢ | $1.2K | $1.5K | +$240.88 | 47% 2220-2471 (4691) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 59¢ | $877.97 | $870.17 | -$7.8 | 51% 21492-20930 (42422) |
CA Cannae | Noavg 60¢ | $506.27 | $493.27 | -$13 | 53% 14998-13126 (28124) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 58.8¢ | $405.21 | $403.36 | -$1.85 | 50% 10665-10792 (21457) |
GA GamblingAddict12345<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $42.38 | $52.42 | +$10.04 | 59% 3399-2381 (5780) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $2.95 | $2.97 | +$0.02 | 60% 39473-26004 (65477) |
Invested
$1,222
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$240.88
Record
47%
2220-2471 (4691)
Invested
$877.97
Value
$870.17
PnL
-$7.8
Record
51%
21492-20930 (42422)
Invested
$506.27
Value
$493.27
PnL
-$13
Record
53%
14998-13126 (28124)
Invested
$405.21
Value
$403.36
PnL
-$1.85
Record
50%
10665-10792 (21457)
Invested
$42.38
Value
$52.42
PnL
+$10.04
Record
59%
3399-2381 (5780)
Invested
$2.95
Value
$2.97
PnL
+$0.02
Record
60%
39473-26004 (65477)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.