Will Norrby IF win on 2026-10-25?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 76¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
1 arb excluded
$1.9K
$16.76
74.4¢ → 76¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 76%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Noavg 75.1¢ | $820.43 | $811.14 | -$9.3 | 52% 16262-14802 (31064) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 75.1¢ | $619.43 | $610.14 | -$9.3 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 26¢ | $201 | $201 | +$0 | |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Yesavg 25¢ | $457.91 | $476.23 | +$18.32 | 59% 13855-9624 (23479) |
CA Cannae | Noavg 74.3¢ | $394.63 | $392.89 | -$1.75 | 53% 13576-12017 (25593) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 74.9¢ | $174.33 | $168.12 | -$2.29 | 58% 31634-22891 (54525) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $74 | $76.5 | +$2.5 | 68% 31050-14947 (45997) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $1.25 | $1.23 | -$0.02 | 55% 4838-4027 (8865) |
Invested
$820.43
Value
$811.14
PnL
-$9.3
Record
52%
16262-14802 (31064)
Both legs:
Invested
$457.91
Value
$476.23
PnL
+$18.32
Record
59%
13855-9624 (23479)
Invested
$394.63
Value
$392.89
PnL
-$1.75
Record
53%
13576-12017 (25593)
VeryLucky888Invested
$174.33
Value
$168.12
PnL
-$2.29
Record
58%
31634-22891 (54525)
Invested
$74
Value
$76.5
PnL
+$2.5
Record
68%
31050-14947 (45997)
Invested
$1.25
Value
$1.23
PnL
-$0.02
Record
55%
4838-4027 (8865)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.