Will IFK Norrkoping FK win on 2026-10-25?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 53¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 25

Yes53¢No47¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

-$46.77

Smart Money Entry

55.9¢ → 52.5¢

-6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 53%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes53%

No48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares3,178

Combined PnL-$25.6

No3 traders

Total Value$493.06

Total Shares1,121

Combined PnL-$21.18

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388	Yesavg 56.5¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$32.6	55% 1296-1043 (2339)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 46.2¢	$458.16	$436.24	-$21.92	68% 30977-14876 (45853)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 54.5¢	$405.46	$416.31	+$10.85	52% 16225-14766 (30991)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 55¢	$225.69	$112.01	-$3.85	58% 31536-22821 (54357)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 43.4¢	$54.99	$55.76	+$0.77	53% 13575-12013 (25588)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 45¢	$1.08	$1.06	-$0.02	58% 1429-1045 (2474)

VD721lsj4938Dk388

Yes

Invested

$1,261.76

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$32.6

Record

55%

1296-1043 (2339)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$458.16

Value

$436.24

PnL

-$21.92

Record

68%

30977-14876 (45853)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$405.46

Value

$416.31

PnL

+$10.85

Record

52%

16225-14766 (30991)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$225.69

Value

$112.01

PnL

-$3.85

Record

58%

31536-22821 (54357)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$54.99

Value

$55.76

PnL

+$0.77

Record

53%

13575-12013 (25588)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$1.08

Value

$1.06

PnL

-$0.02

Record

58%

1429-1045 (2474)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 53%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.