Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (61%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Helsingborgs IF vs. Ljungskile SK: O/U 2.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 40¢ · $752 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 67%
$751.6
-$7.19
44.9¢ → 39.5¢
-12% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 40%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 61%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Underavg 46.3¢ | $340.83 | $290.95 | -$49.88 | 59% 13895-9640 (23535) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 53.7¢ | $191.89 | $216.13 | +$24.24 | 52% 16273-14816 (31089) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 53¢ | $187.77 | $121 | +$24.82 | 58% 31660-22917 (54577) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Underavg 41¢ | $118.98 | $114.63 | -$4.35 | 50% 8804-8737 (17541) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Underavg 49.3¢ | $9.85 | $7.9 | -$1.95 | 68% 31121-14960 (46081) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 42¢ | $1.05 | $0.99 | -$0.06 | 58% 1463-1078 (2541) |
Invested
$340.83
Value
$290.95
PnL
-$49.88
Record
59%
13895-9640 (23535)
Invested
$191.89
Value
$216.13
PnL
+$24.24
Record
52%
16273-14816 (31089)
VeryLucky888Invested
$187.77
Value
$121
PnL
+$24.82
Record
58%
31660-22917 (54577)
Invested
$118.98
Value
$114.63
PnL
-$4.35
Record
50%
8804-8737 (17541)
Invested
$9.85
Value
$7.9
PnL
-$1.95
Record
68%
31121-14960 (46081)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.05
Value
$0.99
PnL
-$0.06
Record
58%
1463-1078 (2541)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.