Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (63%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Helsingborgs IF win on 2026-10-25?

4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 37¢ · $262 held · ended Oct 25

Yes37¢No63¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$261.82

Combined PnL

-$42.54

Smart Money Entry

39.6¢ → 37¢

-7% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 37%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$261.82

Total Shares746

Combined PnL-$42.54

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 39¢	$234	$210	-$33	58% 31667-22925 (54592)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$40.7	$38.5	-$2.2	53% 13578-12019 (25597)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 61¢	$18.91	$11.47	-$7.44	50% 8808-8746 (17554)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$1.75	$1.85	+$0.1	55% 4845-4030 (8875)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$234

Value

$210

PnL

-$33

Record

58%

31667-22925 (54592)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.7

Value

$38.5

PnL

-$2.2

Record

53%

13578-12019 (25597)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.91

Value

$11.47

PnL

-$7.44

Record

50%

8808-8746 (17554)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.75

Value

$1.85

PnL

+$0.1

Record

55%

4845-4030 (8875)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 37%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.2%

37.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$155.25

Max Loss

-$100.00

255.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.