Mjallby AIF vs. Hammarby IF: O/U 3.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 97¢ · $141 held · ended Oct 25

Over4¢Under96¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$141.02

Combined PnL

-$24.82

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over4%

Under97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$86.42

Total Shares89

Combined PnL+$0.28

Over2 traders

Total Value$54.6

Total Shares1,560

Combined PnL-$25.1

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 61¢	$52.12	$82.46	+$1.28	54% 13884-11640 (25524)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 5¢	$77.5	$54.25	-$23.25	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 61¢	$3.61	$3.97	-$1.01	57% 1578-1171 (2749)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Overavg 22¢	$2.2	$0.35	-$1.85	51% 6631-6378 (13009)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$52.12

Value

$82.46

PnL

+$1.28

Record

54%

13884-11640 (25524)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$77.5

Value

$54.25

PnL

-$23.25

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$3.61

Value

$3.97

PnL

-$1.01

Record

57%

1578-1171 (2749)

fooooolCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.2

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$1.85

Record

51%

6631-6378 (13009)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.6%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.