Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Hammarby IF, while the market favors Mjallby AIF (68%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Hammarby IF (-1.5)
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Hammarby IF (20%) · Hammarby IF at 32¢ · $13K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Hammarby IF
5
Hammarby IF 20%
1 arb excluded
$13.3K
-$8.34
Research grade
NeutralHammarby IF at 32%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Mjallby AIF 68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR | Hammarby IFavg 45¢ | $10.5K | $10.5K | -$0 | 48% 114-124 (238) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Mjallby AIFavg 55.6¢ | $1.6K | $1.7K | +$105.89 | 52% 16298-14844 (31142) |
| └ Mjallby AIF leg | Mjallby AIFavg 55.6¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$66.58 | |
| └ Hammarby IF leg | Hammarby IFavg 38.1¢ | $510.71 | $550.01 | +$39.3 | |
UP UpTheBlues | Mjallby AIFavg 55.8¢ | $419.42 | $413.16 | -$6.26 | 68% 31181-14989 (46170) |
 VeryLucky888 | Mjallby AIFavg 55.8¢ | $531.18 | $365.87 | -$2.21 | 58% 31709-22957 (54666) |
 HRTrading | Mjallby AIFavg 55¢ | $356.47 | $357 | +$0.13 | 57% 1491-1104 (2595) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Mjallby AIFavg 55¢ | $2.75 | $2.75 | -$0 | 59% 13939-9669 (23608) |
Invested
$10,495.39
Value
$10.5K
PnL
-$0
Record
48%
114-124 (238)
Invested
$1,588.73
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$105.89
Record
52%
16298-14844 (31142)
Both legs:
Invested
$419.42
Value
$413.16
PnL
-$6.26
Record
68%
31181-14989 (46170)
VeryLucky888Invested
$531.18
Value
$365.87
PnL
-$2.21
Record
58%
31709-22957 (54666)
HRTradingInvested
$356.47
Value
$357
PnL
+$0.13
Record
57%
1491-1104 (2595)
Invested
$2.75
Value
$2.75
PnL
-$0
Record
59%
13939-9669 (23608)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
32.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.