Will Mjallby AIF win on 2026-10-25?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 99¢ · $514 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
$514.32
-$17.99
87.6¢ → 99.1¢
+13% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 88¢ | $383.58 | $423.88 | +$40.3 | 55% 43817-36057 (79874) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 85.8¢ | $79.8 | $84.82 | +$11.05 | 58% 31904-23124 (55028) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $74.97 | $5.62 | -$69.35 | 51% 6631-6378 (13009) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.