Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (91%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Hammarby IF win on 2026-10-25?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 9.5¢ · $560 held · ended Oct 25

Yes91¢No9¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$559.54

Combined PnL

$23.48

Smart Money Entry

34.4¢ → 9.5¢

-72% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 91%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes91%

No10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$273.29

Total Shares689

Combined PnL+$37.24

Yes2 traders

Total Value$153.88

Total Shares162

Combined PnL-$13.76

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 33.2¢	$259.17	$163.09	+$44.26	58% 31731-22975 (54706)
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 83.2¢	$161.59	$148.03	-$13.56	68% 31211-14997 (46208)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Yesavg 78¢	$159.63	$132.36	-$27.27	51% 6583-6340 (12923)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 78¢	$111.66	$94.43	-$17.23
└ No leg	Noavg 43¢	$47.98	$37.93	-$10.04
RN1CTR	Noavg 38.1¢	$114.26	$101.03	-$13.22	55% 43612-35879 (79491)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 11¢	$2.97	$9.17	+$6.2	50% 8825-8766 (17591)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$6.05	$5.85	-$0.2	57% 1506-1114 (2620)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$259.17

Value

$163.09

PnL

+$44.26

Record

58%

31731-22975 (54706)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$161.59

Value

$148.03

PnL

-$13.56

Record

68%

31211-14997 (46208)

fooooolARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$159.63

Value

$132.36

PnL

-$27.27

Record

51%

6583-6340 (12923)

Both legs:

Yes$111.6678¢-$17.23

No$47.9843¢-$10.04

RN1CTR

Invested

$114.26

Value

$101.03

PnL

-$13.22

Record

55%

43612-35879 (79491)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$2.97

Value

$9.17

PnL

+$6.2

Record

50%

8825-8766 (17591)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.05

Value

$5.85

PnL

-$0.2

Record

57%

1506-1114 (2620)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 91%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance11.0%

9.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$811.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

911.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.