Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (59%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

GAIS vs. IFK Goteborg: O/U 2.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 41¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25

Over41¢Under59¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

-$26.46

Smart Money Entry

51.6¢ → 41¢

-21% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 41%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 59%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over41%

Under59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares4,607

Combined PnL-$33.72

Under3 traders

Total Value$202.22

Total Shares396

Combined PnL+$7.26

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
us391CTR	Overavg 52¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$41.18	52% 1353-1269 (2622)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 50¢	$126.55	$123.98	+$2.53	58% 31642-22900 (54542)
RN1CTR	Overavg 46¢	$113.18	$118.1	+$4.92	55% 43492-35800 (79292)
SA Saber-greed<$100	Underavg 49¢	$97.08	$97.08	+$0	59% 2262-1574 (3836)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Underavg 46.7¢	$53.65	$56.35	+$2.7	68% 31119-14954 (46073)
FO foooool<$100	Underavg 53.5¢	$44.23	$48.79	+$4.56	51% 6539-6324 (12863)

us391CTR

Over

Invested

$2,141.15

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$41.18

Record

52%

1353-1269 (2622)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$126.55

Value

$123.98

PnL

+$2.53

Record

58%

31642-22900 (54542)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$113.18

Value

$118.1

PnL

+$4.92

Record

55%

43492-35800 (79292)

Saber-greed<$100

Under

Invested

$97.08

Value

$97.08

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

2262-1574 (3836)

UpTheBlues<$100

Under

Invested

$53.65

Value

$56.35

PnL

+$2.7

Record

68%

31119-14954 (46073)

foooool<$100

Under

Invested

$44.23

Value

$48.79

PnL

+$4.56

Record

51%

6539-6324 (12863)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 41%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 59%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.2%

41.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$131.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

231.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.