Will IFK Goteborg win on 2026-10-25?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 69¢ · $533 held · ended Oct 25

Yes31¢No69¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

Total Value

$532.77

Combined PnL

$19.66

Smart Money Entry

66.3¢ → 69¢

+4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$472.71

Total Shares682

Combined PnL+$20.42

Yes5 traders

Total Value$60.05

Total Shares180

Combined PnL-$0.75

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 66¢	$267.96	$286.23	+$18.27	50% 8802-8735 (17537)
FO foooool	Noavg 66.8¢	$174.13	$175.83	+$1.7	51% 6539-6324 (12863)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$26.4	$26	-$0.4	68% 31119-14954 (46073)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$16.19	$16.97	+$0.78	52% 16269-14809 (31078)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$9.45	$9.15	-$0.3	58% 1460-1073 (2533)
BA Bayupati<$100	Noavg 67¢	$8.01	$8.42	+$0.42	50% 160-158 (318)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$7.24	$6.48	-$0.77	54% 13809-11592 (25401)
RN1<$100	Noavg 67¢	$2.19	$2.23	+$0.03	55% 43492-35800 (79292)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$1.53	$1.45	-$0.07	52% 5507-5116 (10623)

SnakeBall

Invested

$267.96

Value

$286.23

PnL

+$18.27

Record

50%

8802-8735 (17537)

foooool

Invested

$174.13

Value

$175.83

PnL

+$1.7

Record

51%

6539-6324 (12863)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.4

Value

$26

PnL

-$0.4

Record

68%

31119-14954 (46073)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.19

Value

$16.97

PnL

+$0.78

Record

52%

16269-14809 (31078)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.45

Value

$9.15

PnL

-$0.3

Record

58%

1460-1073 (2533)

Bayupati<$100

Invested

$8.01

Value

$8.42

PnL

+$0.42

Record

50%

160-158 (318)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.24

Value

$6.48

PnL

-$0.77

Record

54%

13809-11592 (25401)

RN1<$100

Invested

$2.19

Value

$2.23

PnL

+$0.03

Record

55%

43492-35800 (79292)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.53

Value

$1.45

PnL

-$0.07

Record

52%

5507-5116 (10623)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.0%

69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$40.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

140.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.