Will GAIS win on 2026-10-25?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 62¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$5.7K
-$7.29
62.1¢ → 61.5¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 62%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542 | Noavg 62¢ | $4.3K | $4.3K | +$0 | 47% 1968-2204 (4172) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 62.7¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$12.53 | 58% 31642-22900 (54542) |
 RN1 | Noavg 59¢ | $142.46 | $149.71 | +$7.24 | 55% 43492-35800 (79292) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Noavg 62.6¢ | $123.87 | $122.76 | -$1.11 | 54% 13809-11592 (25401) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 39¢ | $33.93 | $33.06 | -$0.87 | 68% 31119-14954 (46073) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $2.48 | $2.46 | -$0.02 | 58% 1460-1073 (2533) |
Invested
$4,319.26
Value
$4.3K
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
1968-2204 (4172)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,176.35
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$12.53
Record
58%
31642-22900 (54542)
RN1Invested
$142.46
Value
$149.71
PnL
+$7.24
Record
55%
43492-35800 (79292)
Invested
$123.87
Value
$122.76
PnL
-$1.11
Record
54%
13809-11592 (25401)
Invested
$33.93
Value
$33.06
PnL
-$0.87
Record
68%
31119-14954 (46073)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.48
Value
$2.46
PnL
-$0.02
Record
58%
1460-1073 (2533)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.